Someone has to go home first, and the math here is brutal — not because Contreras can’t hit, but because of where he hits.

He’s a right-handed pull hitter, and this season, 19 of his 20 home runs have gone to left field. The lone exception was a 411-foot shot to center. Now put him in a ballpark famous for rewarding lefties. He’s swinging into the deepest part of the field while Schwarber and Harper get to aim at a phone booth.

Then stack the new format on top. Contreras is 33 — and for context, the oldest player to ever win this thing is Dave Parker, at 34, back in 1985. A 20-swing cap gives a veteran zero margin to warm up. He’s a genuinely great hitter having a career year. He’s just the wrong hitter, in the wrong park, in the wrong format.

This one hurts, because Walker might have the single highest ceiling in the field. He’s 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, and his Statcast page is a fire alarm: 100th percentile bat speed. 98th percentile exit velocity. 93rd percentile hard-hit rate. When he connects, it is not a fair fight.

That phrase — when he connects — is the whole problem.

Walker sits in the 17th percentile in whiff rate. In a timed Derby, that’s survivable; you just swing again. In a 20-swing Derby, every miss is a bullet you don’t get back. He’s the definition of boom-or-bust, and the new format sharpened the bust end of that considerably. If he gets hot, he could win the entire thing. We just don’t think he will.

The best story in the Derby, and we’re rooting for it.

Rice is a 12th-round pick and barely-ranked prospect who has become the centerpiece of the Yankees lineup in his third season — top-five in baseball in home runs and slugging. And here’s the part that’ll get you: his dad Dan, who pitched at Brown in the 1980s, is coming out of retirement to throw to him. If that doesn’t move you a little, check your pulse.

So why sixth? Derby pitching is its own dark art — the rhythm, the location, the tempo. A career year and an emotional edge are real, but the guys ranked above him have park advantages Rice simply doesn’t. A win would make him the fifth Yankee to take the crown, and the first since Aaron Judge in 2017. We’d love it. We just don’t see it.

A first-round pick just two years ago, and in his second season the light has come on. June was the announcement: nine home runs while slashing .309/.387/.649, including a five-game stretch where he launched six.

He’s the sixth Royal to swing in a Derby, following Bo Jackson, Danny Tartabull, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, and Bobby Witt Jr. That’s a real lineage, and Caglianone has the kind of easy, natural power that plays anywhere.

He’s young, he’s ascending, and honestly he’s the most likely guy in this field to blow our rankings up. But experience matters in a swing-capped Derby, and he’s got the least of it. Fifth is a compliment — it means we think he’s a threat, not a tourist. The fans who’ve watched this breakout happen in real time already know what they’ve got, and a hand-drawn Caglianone design is the kind of thing you own before everyone else catches up.

The last man to join the field, and the one we’d least like to face.

Murakami arrived from Japan with an elite-power reputation and immediately proved it — homered in each of his first three games, then piled up 20 before a hamstring strain cost him 35 games on the IL. Here’s the stat that matters: at the moment he got hurt, only Kyle Schwarber had more home runs than him. Read that again.

He’s back healthy, and his batted-ball profile is genuinely absurd: 98th percentile or better in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. He does not hit warning-track flyouts. He hits the ball flush, and that is exactly the skill a 20-swing format rewards.

He’s chasing history twice over — first rookie to win since Pete Alonso in 2019, and only the second White Sox player ever, joining Frank Thomas in 1995. The health question is the only thing keeping him out of our top three. If the hamstring holds, look out. Fans who want to rep the rookie before the rest of the country learns his name should look at the full Murakami collection — this is the “before everyone else knew” window.

The first man to commit to this Derby, and he did it while in the middle of one of the loudest heaters of the season: 11 home runs in 12 games in June. Not a hot week. A hot month, at a pace that makes pitchers reconsider their careers.

Caminero is the youth-movement pick that actually has the résumé to back it up. He beat out a crowded American League third-base field to earn an All-Star start, and he’s arrived as a legitimate middle-of-the-order force in a lineup that needed one.

Why not higher? Two Phillies stand between him and the trophy, and they get to swing in their own backyard. That’s a hell of a headwind. But if the hometown magic fizzles, Caminero is the guy standing there ready to take it — and a hand-drawn Caminero graphic tee is how Rays fans call it early.

Let’s just say the quiet part out loud: are you really going to doubt Bryce Harper, in his own ballpark, in a Home Run Derby?

The man already did this. 2018, Nationals Park, his home field — he won the whole thing in front of his own crowd. He knows exactly what this moment feels like, and he has never in his life been accused of shrinking in it. He’s a nine-time All-Star, he’s here as the Commissioner’s Legend Pick, and he’s rebuilt his power stroke in 2026, already closing in on last season’s 27 homers with his slugging back over .500.

And if Harper gets hot on Monday night? The Bank is going to come apart at the seams. There is no crowd in America that will get louder, faster.

So why second? He’s 33, and his underlying power metrics sit a tick behind the young monsters in this field. That’s not an insult — it’s a scouting report. Reality says the swing-capped format favors the guy with the loudest contact. Sentiment says never bet against Harper at home. We’re splitting the difference, and we’d be thrilled to be wrong.

If the Bank does erupt, the fans who were there for it will want something better than a rack tee. The hand-drawn Bryce Harper designs exist for exactly that kind of night.